The 4% Rule
Coined from the Trinity Study, the 4% rule says retirees can withdraw 4% of their starting portfolio in year one and adjust for inflation thereafter, with a high probability of lasting 30 years across historical markets.
01 · Inputs
Your numbers
Adjust to see your withdrawal plan update instantly.
$
$
%
Default 4% (Trinity study)
%
After inflation. Default 5%
yrs
02 · Result
Your Withdrawal Plan
75%success
Annual W/D
$40k
Yrs Last
60+
After 30y
$1.5M
At RiskFragileStableRobust
Annual Withdrawal
$40,000
Monthly Withdrawal
$3,333
Sustainability Score
100%
Portfolio After 30 yrs
$1,531,511
Years Portfolio May Last
60+ yrs
Effective Rate
4.00%
Portfolio Depletion
Real-dollar balance over 30 years at $40,000 annual spending.
Learn about Safe Withdrawal Rates
Safe Withdrawal Rate Theory
SWR research models thousands of historical and simulated retirements to find the highest withdrawal rate that survives the worst sequences. Conservative plans use 3–3.5%; aggressive plans push 4–5%.
Sequence of Returns Risk
Early losses combined with withdrawals can permanently impair a portfolio — even if long-run average returns are great. A 30% drawdown in year one is far more damaging than the same drop in year twenty.
Inflation Considerations
Always plan in real (inflation-adjusted) terms. A 7% nominal return with 3% inflation is only 4% real. This calculator assumes your inputs already exclude inflation so balances stay in today's dollars.
Why Withdrawal Rates Matter
Every 1% you can shave off your withdrawal rate dramatically increases the probability of success and reduces the portfolio you need. 4% requires 25× expenses; 3% requires ~33×.
Guardrails Beat Rigidity
Most modern SWR research recommends dynamic spending — trimming withdrawals during deep drawdowns and increasing them in strong markets — instead of mechanically inflating a fixed dollar amount.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is a Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR)?
A Safe Withdrawal Rate is the percentage of your portfolio you can withdraw each year — adjusted for inflation — with a high probability of not running out of money across a long retirement. The classic baseline is 4%, popularized by the Trinity Study.
Is the 4% rule still safe today?
The 4% rule held up across most historical 30-year retirements, but lower expected returns, longer lifespans and richer valuations have led many researchers to suggest 3.3%–3.8% as a more conservative starting point. Use this calculator to stress-test your own number.
What is sequence of returns risk?
Sequence of returns risk is the danger of suffering large losses in the early years of retirement while simultaneously withdrawing income. The same average return can either sustain a portfolio for decades or deplete it in under 15 years depending on the order of returns.
Should I use real or nominal returns?
Always plan with real (inflation-adjusted) returns. This calculator assumes your expected return is already net of inflation, so all projected portfolio balances stay in today's purchasing power.
How often should I recalculate my withdrawal rate?
Re-check at least annually, after major market moves, and any time your spending, taxes, or life plans change. Many retirees use guardrails — adjusting withdrawals up or down when the portfolio drifts outside a target band.
Freedom OS Learn
Understand Safe Withdrawal Rates
Learn what safe withdrawal rates mean, how they are calculated, and the assumptions behind the 4% rule before making important financial decisions.